[Infowarrior] - Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake

[Richard Forno]

Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake
06 Apr 2009 11:22:02 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Gavin Jones

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6566682.htm

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major  
earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on  
Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for  
spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued  
at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city,  
about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling  
locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani  
predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around  
seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm"  
and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks  
Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in  
L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical  
sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the  
one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement  
on the eve of that meeting.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to  
predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason  
for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and  
attention".

As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to  
safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National  
Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions.

"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have  
predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this  
earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."

Enzo Boschi said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing  
failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes.

"We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in  
our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in  
areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.