[Infowarrior] - Fallows on Google China

[Richard Forno]

(Fallows spent 3 years in China and is one of the most well-informed  
long-form journalists on the region that I know of. -rick)

The Google news: China enters its Bush-Cheney era
12 Jan 2010 11:47 pm

http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2010/01/first_reactions_on_google_and.php

I have not yet been able to reach my friends in China to discuss this  
story, and for now I am judging the Google response strictly by what  
the company has posted on its "Official Blog," here, and my  
observations from dealing with Google-China officials while overseas.  
Therefore this will epitomize the Web-age reaction to a breaking news  
story, in that it will be a first imperfect assessment, subject to  
revision as new facts come in. With that caveat, here is what I think  
as I hear this news:

- It is a significant development. Significant for Google; and while  
only marginally significant for developments inside China potentially  
very significant for China's relations with the rest of the world.

- The significance for Google is of the "last straw" variety. For  
years, the company has struggled to maintain the right path in China.  
Its policy around the world is that it will obey the law of whatever  
country it operates in. You might object to that -- until you think  
about it: in a world of sovereign states, how could a company possibly  
say, "We'll operate within your borders but won't obey your  
laws?" (Similarly, Google's national sites in certain parts of Europe  
obey laws banning neo-Nazi sites and other material that would be  
permissible in the U.S.) Chinese laws require search engine companies  
and other Internet operators to censor certain material. Searches  
conducted by Google.CN -- in Chinese language, mainly for users inside  
China -- have obeyed those Chinese laws. Meanwhile searches on the  
main Google.COM have been uncensored for material like "Tiananmen  
Square" or "Dalai Lama." Anyone who could find a way to get to  
Google.com - about which more in a moment -- could find whatever he or  
she wanted.

Dealing with those requirements has been part of a non-stop set of  
difficulties for Google in China. More details about this later on.  
Like most other Western companies, Google has consistently decided to  
cope with the difficulties and stay in China. Part of the reason was  
the obvious commercial potential that the Chinese market has for  
almost any company in any industry. Another part was Google's argument  
-- which I basically believe -- that the Chinese public was better off  
with another source of information, even if constrained, than it would  
be without that option. But, as reported on Google's site, a latest  
wave of provocations and intrusions was simply too much.

- In terms of information flow into China, this decision probably  
makes no real difference at all. Why? Anybody inside China who really  
wants to get to Google.com -- or BBC or whatever site may be blocked  
for the moment -- can still do so easily, by using a proxy server or  
buying (for under $1 per week) a VPN service. Details here. For the  
vast majority of Chinese users, it's not worth going to that cost or  
bother, since so much material is still available in Chinese from  
authorized sites. That has been the genius, so far, of the Chinese  
"Great Firewall" censorship system: it allows easy loopholes for  
anyone who might get really upset, but it effectively keeps most  
Chinese Internet users away from unauthorized material.

- In terms of the next stage of China's emergence as a power and  
dealings with the United States, this event has the potential to make  
a great deal of difference -- in a negative way, for China. I think of  
this as the beginning of China's Bush-Cheney era. To put it in  
perspective:

I have long argued that China's relations with the U.S. are overall  
positive for both sides (here and here); that the Chinese government  
is doing more than outsiders think to deal with vexing problems like  
the environment (here); and more generally that China is a still-poor,  
highly-diverse and individualistic country whose development need not  
"threaten" anyone else and should be encouraged. I still believe all  
of that.

But there are also reasons to think that a difficult and unpleasant  
stage of China-U.S. and China-world relations lies ahead. This is so  
on the economic front, as warned about here nearly a year ago with  
later evidence here. It may prove to be so on the environmental front  
-- that is what the argument over China's role in Copenhagen is about.  
It is increasingly so on the political-liberties front, as witness  
Vaclav Havel's denunciation of the recent 11-year prison sentence for  
the man who is in many ways his Chinese counterpart, Liu Xiaobo. And  
if a major U.S. company -- indeed, Google has been ranked the #1 brand  
in the world -- has concluded that, in effect, it must break  
diplomatic relations with China because its policies are too  
repressive and intrusive to make peace with, that is a significant  
judgment.

-- Everything in the paragraph above has the similarity of being based  
directly or indirectly on recent Chinese government decisions. The  
government could decide (and probably will) to allow the value of the  
RMB to float again. The government could decide to throw its weight  
behind an effective climate agreement -- we'll know by January 31  
about its post-Copenhagen proposals. The government could have decided  
not to prosecute Liu Xiaobo. And -- the indirect part -- presumably it  
could have worked with Google to address the complaints alleged in the  
Google statement. 

In a strange and striking way there is an inversion of recent Chinese  
and U.S. roles. In the switch from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, the  
U.S. went from a president much of the world saw as deliberately  
antagonizing them to a president whose Nobel Prize reflected (perhaps  
desperate) gratitude at his efforts at conciliation. China, by  
contrast, seems to be entering its Bush-Cheney era. For Chinese  
readers, let me emphasize again my argument that China is not a  
"threat" and that its development is good news for mankind. But its  
government is on a path at the moment that courts resistance around  
the world. To me, that is what Google's decision signifies.