[Infowarrior] - AT&T Front Group Claims Internet End Is Nigh

[Richard Forno]

AT&T Front Group Claims Internet End Is Nigh
Expect Internet brownouts unless AT&T lobbyists get what they want...

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/ATT-Front-Group-Claims-Internet-End-Is-Nigh-99213

As a rule, most warnings of Internet capacity armageddon
come from traffic shaping companies looking to sell hardware, or  
industry lobbyists trying to shape policy through think tanks. The  
term "exaflood," created by the same think tank who crafted the term  
"intelligent design," is part of a sophisticated campaign aimed at  
convincing the press, public and lawmakers that without giving  
carriers what they want (less regulation, no net neutrality laws, no  
price controls, huge subsidies and tax credits, less consumer  
protection), the world will simply run out of bandwidth and we'll all  
be weeping over our clogged tubes.

Andrew Odlyzko, one of the nation's top experts on global Internet  
traffic, repeatedly notes that while growth is strong, it doesn't  
necessitate drastic new pricing model shifts (metered billing), and is  
entirely manageable with just modest capacity upgrades. According to  
Odlyzko, the current Internet growth rate of about 50% per year "can  
be accommodated with essentially the current level of capital  
investment." If anything, Odlyzko predicts a slow down (something  
Cogent confirms).

But carriers are better served having the public worry that we're  
running out of capacity and need to take drastic steps to avoid  
problems. That's why a think tank named the Discovery Institute (who  
also crafted the phrase "intelligent design" used to help push  
creationism into U.S. classrooms) cooked up the term "exaflood" in a  
2007 Wall Street Journal editorial.

The term is part of a campaign aimed at convincing the public and  
lawmakers that an industry that has always managed to adapt to  
bandwidth demand, will suddenly fail to do so without drastic action.  
What action? In addition to favorable policy, carriers throughout  
North America are using the non-existent crunch to argue for new  
metered pricing models, and increased throttling of competitors'  
traffic. Carriers like AT&T can't very well propose new caps on usage  
if you're out there believing that they already make a healthy profit  
and can consistently meet capacity demands.

Click for full size
One of the biggest pushers of the exaflood myth is the Internet  
Innovation Alliance, an industry trade group spearheaded largely by  
AT&T. With AT&T funding, the IIA likes to selectively pluck data that  
supports their exaflood concept from a research firm named Nemertes  
research about once a year. The IIA is back again this week with a  
press release proclaiming that by 2012, apparently incompetent  
engineers won't be able to manage capacity, and we will begin seeing  
brownouts. Fixing this incompetence will require Uncle Sam doing what  
AT&T wants them to:

"The exponential explosion of content will persist during challenging  
economic times, but a prolonged global recession could starve networks  
of the necessary capital investment," said Bruce Mehlman, co-chair of  
Internet Innovation Alliance. "It's more important than ever to  
develop a National Broadband Strategy that will encourage investment  
and innovations that accelerate America's global competitiveness and  
address major national challenges, such as energy efficiency, health  
care cost and quality educational opportunity."
What the IIA doesn't tell you in their release is how they hope to  
accommodate this mythical spending shortfall to address their mythical  
bandwidth crisis, or what their version of a national broadband  
strategy (which they're pushing this week in DC) is. Traditionally,  
the IIA's solution involves the government giving the biggest carriers  
huge deployment subsidies, while also reducing taxes on carriers.  
Given the government's history of failed accountability on this front,  
the IIA is simply asking for no-strings money. That's all the exaflood  
myth has ever been about.

If you're not afraid yet, the IIA recently offered up this video aimed  
at convincing you the end is near. They don't make their sales pitch  
until 4:20, where they hint that "wise public policy" can save us all  
from the bandwidth bogeyman. Be afraid. Be very afraid.