[Infowarrior] - DHS forecasts 5-year terror threats

[Richard Forno]

DHS forecasts 5-year terror threats
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Dec 25, 6:35 PM (ET)

By EILEEN SULLIVAN

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081225/D95A1JLO0.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - The terrorism threat to the United States over the  
next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and  
Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing  
Internet savvy, says a new intelligence assessment obtained by The  
Associated Press.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered  
the most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the U.S.  
But those threats are also the most unlikely because it is so  
difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials  
needed to carry out such plots, according to the internal Homeland  
Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013.

The al-Qaida terrorist network continues to focus on U.S. attack  
targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and  
political "turmoil," the assessment said.

Earlier this month, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said  
the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remains "the highest  
priority at the federal level." Speaking to reporters on Dec. 3,  
Chertoff explained that more people, such as terrorists, will learn  
how to make dirty bombs, biological and chemical weapons. "The other  
side is going to continue to learn more about doing things," he said.

Marked "for official use only," the report does not specify its  
audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement,  
intelligence officials and the private sector. When determining  
threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life, economic and  
psychological consequences.

Intelligence officials also predict that in the next five years,  
terrorists will try to conduct a destructive biological attack.  
Officials are concerned about the possibility of infections to  
thousands of U.S. citizens, overwhelming regional health care systems.

There could also be dire economic impacts caused by workers' illnesses  
and deaths. Officials are most concerned about biological agents  
stolen from labs or other storage facilities, such as anthrax.

"The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has  
not abated," Chertoff said in his year-end address on Dec. 18. "This  
threat has not evaporated, and we can't turn the page on it."

These high-consequence threats are not the only kind of challenges  
that will confront the U.S. over the next five years.

Terrorists will continue to try to evade U.S. border security measures  
and place operatives inside the mainland to carry out attacks, the 38- 
page assessment said. It also said that they may pose as refugees or  
asylum seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels such as the  
visa waiver program, which allows citizens of 34 countries to enter  
the U.S. without visas.

Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and  
asylum programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the U.S.  
illegally. Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the  
U.S. in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could  
increase because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.

Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa,  
officials expect more will try to enter the U.S. illegally as well.  
Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan,  
Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Intelligence officials predict the pool of radical Islamists within  
the U.S. will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease  
of online recruiting means. Officials foresee "a wave of young, self- 
identified Muslim 'terrorist wannabes' who aspire to carry out violent  
acts."

The U.S. has already seen some examples of these homegrown terrorists.  
Recently five Muslim immigrants were convicted of plotting to massacre  
U.S. soldiers at Fort Dix in a case the government said demonstrated  
its post-Sept. 11 determination to stop terrorist attacks in the  
planning stages.

The Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah does not have a known history of  
fomenting attacks inside the U.S., but that could change if there is  
some kind of "triggering" event, the Homeland assessment cautions.

A 2008 Interagency Intelligence Committee on Terrorism assessment said  
that Hezbollah members based in the U.S. do local fundraising through  
charity projects and criminal activity, like money laundering,  
smuggling, drug trafficking, fraud and extortion, according to the  
homeland security assessment.

In addition, the cyber terror threat is expected to increase over the  
next five years, as hacking tools become more sophisticated and  
available. "Youthful, Internet-savvy extremists might apply their  
online acumen to conduct cyber attacks rather than offer themselves up  
as operatives to conduct physical attacks," according to the assessment.

Currently, Islamic terrorists, including al-Qaida, would like to  
conduct cyber attacks, but they lack the capability to do so, the  
assessment said. The large-scale attacks that are on al-Qaida's  
wishlist - such as disrupting a major city's water or power systems -  
require sophisticated cyber capabilities that the terrorist group does  
not possess.

But al-Qaida has the capability to hire sophisticated hackers to carry  
out these kinds of attacks, the assessment said. And federal officials  
believe that in the next three to five years, al-Qaida could direct or  
inspire cyber attacks that target the U.S. economy.

Counterterrorism expert Frank Cilluffo says the typical cyber attack  
would not achieve al-Qaida's main goal of inflicting mass devastation  
with its resulting widespread media coverage. However, al-Qaida is  
likely to continue to rely on the Internet to spread its message, said  
Cilluffo, who runs the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George  
Washington University.

Officials also predict that domestic terrorists in the forms of  
radical animal rights and environmental extremists will become more  
adept with explosives and increase their use of arson attacks.