[Infowarrior] - DOD wants to fund "political will mapper" tool

[Richard Forno]

This is interesting from an analytical perspective yet underscores the
fetish America has with applying technology and technological systems
towards socio-cultural problems.  Seeing something like this only makes me
think back to Macnamara's infatuation with systems analysis as the be-all
end-all for developing lessons-learned reports during Vietnam.

In the case of low-intensity conflict and unconventional warfare, I'm
skeptical of the effectiveness of such a proposed system. If you don't have
folks that understand the theory behind tribal cultures and relations
amongst foreign populations --- ie things you ONLY find out with close
interaction with the locals -- all something like this will do is give you
data and metrics but not wisdom or understanding.

In other words, having data =| having understanding.

Still, it sounds like a nifty project for some contractor....and I admit I'd
be curious to see how this gets developed.

-rf


http://www.dodsbir.net/solicitation/sttr07/osd07.htm

> OSD07-T002        TITLE: Measuring and Mapping Political Will
> 
>  
> 
> TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Human Systems
> 
>  
> 
> OBJECTIVE: Design, develop and test a dynamic analytical tool for determining
> the presence, absence and/or degree of political will for reform and
> collaboration with the USG in democratization, counter-insurgency and
> counter-terrorism efforts within governments and/or leadership elites of
> crisis prone states.  Develop a web-enabled/deployable training methodology
> and product to be used by USG policy-makers and DoD operational field leaders
> to learn how to apply the dynamic analytical tool in specific countries.
> 
>  
> 
> DESCRIPTION: In environments that are unstable, the DoD is often at the
> forefront of USG efforts to stabilize local and regional populations.
> Operational and tactical military leaders may find themselves to be the
> primary interface with a country¹s political leaders.  Gauging willingness of
> those political leaders to collaborate with the USG on counter-insurgency,
> counter-terrorism and stabilization operations/objectives is critical to U.S.
> success in these programs.  This willingness to collaborate with the USG,
> specifically in efforts to reform the politico/economic environment, is what
> is referred to as political will.
> 
>  
> 
> The literatures of democratization, counter-insurgency, and counter-terrorism
> are replete with the centrality of political will to successfully
> accomplishing our national objectives.  It is identified as a threshold
> variable in determining the relationship between the USG and foreign
> government counterparts.  Political will is derived from the support of the
> people, and is vital to successful accomplishment of USG objectives and
> therefore of vital interest to strategic and operational leaders.  Moreover,
> current planning efforts within both the civilian and military agencies of the
> USG depend on the presence of political will for establishing strategies for
> dealing with insurgency, terrorism and democratization.  For example, current
> efforts of the OSD (³Ungoverned Areas²) and the National Security Council
> (³Safe Havens Strategy²) begin with an initial threshold question, ³Does the
> state have political will?²
> 
>  
> 
> Political will is often posed in this way ­ i.e. as a binary variable;
> counterpart governments in subject states are assumed to either have, or not
> have it.  It is typically discussed as though the government, or leadership,
> of the subject state is monolithic.  Analyses of political will generally seem
> to assume that once a determination is made, it can be treated as a constant.
> However, this over-simplification creates a number of extreme vulnerabilities,
> and leads to the likelihood of miscalculation in determining the appropriate
> relationship with a host-government counterpart. The miscalculation of such a
> key variable can easily result in significant waste of resources, effort and
> time, and even counterproductive outcomes.
> 
>  
> 
> Military and other planners traditionally make instinctive assumptions about
> the presence or absence of political will based on a variety of subjective
> factors.  Until  now no objective framework for determination has been
> developed or applied.  The result is that major decisions regarding
> collaboration, information sharing, funding and planning are based almost
> exclusively on individual idiosyncracy, without taking into account historical
> or collective experience.  As defined in JP 1-02, DoD Dictionary of Military
> Terms, an assumption is: ³A supposition on the current situation or a
> presupposition on the future course of events, either or both assumed to be
> true in the absence of positive proof, necessary to enable the commander in
> the process of planning to complete an estimate of the situation and make a
> decision on the course of action.²  (e.g. following the conclusion of armed
> military conflict the population will embrace democratic ideals).  Planner¹s
> can¹t actually confirm that is the case without reliable polling data, but
> through expert opinion and other methods they strongly suspect its validity.
> Based on an assumption that the environment (political will) will be more
> benign than contested, the military planner may assign fewer resources at
> their disposal to population control/security tasks than if the reverse were
> true.  A capability to dynamically assess the impact of political will on
> national/ military objectives would be of enormous value to USG planners in
> that it would allow for more efficient/effective allocation of USG
> resources/efforts.
> 
>  
> 
> This research project will de-construct and unpack the concept of political
> will into its constituent elements.  The reduction of political will to a
> binary variable misses the tremendous array of intermediary positions between
> the poles of presence or absence.  The project will establish a full spectrum
> of gradients between the two extremes based on the level of intensity of
> political will.  This will enable policy-makers and field leaders to gauge
> just how much political will their counterparts possess.  With respect to the
> monolithic character of regimes, even the most autocratic regimes are not
> entirely monolithic ­ there are always elements within a regime which favor
> reform.  The study will therefore develop a mapping methodology to help
> determine the universality of political will - which sub-components of host
> country regime possess political will for reform and collaboration.  Finally
> the project will develop a dynamic component to measure the propensity to
> variation in political will, or its robustness, based on behavior and fact
> patterns.
> 
>  
> 
> PHASE I: Design the analytic framework for a nuanced determination of critical
> Œpolitical will¹ factors within regimes that directly influence stabilization
> operations and other military-relevant missions and outcomes.  Metrics for
> measuring political will are to be developed, along with the capability to
> model dynamic changes in the political will dimension that may occur within a
> given regime. 
> 
>  
> 
> PHASE II: Develop and refine the framework using empirical validation to
> clarify relationships between gradients of political will intensity and actual
> behavior.  Use the same historical cases to validate the behavior and fact
> patterns.  Establish overall validity of the dynamic analytic tool through
> selected testing.
> 
>  
> 
> PHASE III: Design and develop modular deployable training program to enable
> policy-makers and field-based leaders to apply the dynamic analytic tool
> appropriately and utilize the methodology effectively.
> 
>  
> 
> DUAL USE COMMERCIALIZATION: The political will concept could be designed at
> multiple levels and has potentially wide applicability USG-wide, Multination
> and International governments and industries.
> 
>  
> 
> REFERENCES:
> 
> 1. Brinkerhoff, Derick W., with assistance from Nicolas P. Kulibaba,
> ³Identifying and Assessing Political Will for Anti-Corruption Efforts,²
> (1999).
> 
>  
> 
> 2. Blair, Harry and Gary Hanson, ³Weighing in on the scales of justice:
> Strategic approaches for donor-supported rule of law programs,² (1994).
> 
>  
> 
> 3. Turvey, Brent E., ³Criminal Profiling: An Introduction to Behavioral
> Evidence Analysis,² (2002).
> 
>  
> 
> KEYWORDS: political will, political support, governmental support, political
> commitment, leadership attitude
> 
>