[Infowarrior] - Sequestration Positions Cyber Command For A Fall

[Richard Forno]

NextGov.com
March 1, 2013

Sequestration Positions Cyber Command For A Fall

By Aliya Sternstein

http://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2013/03/sequestration-positions-cyber-command-fall/61607/

By the end of April, the Pentagon will be devoting less attention and fewer
staff to network security under spending cuts set for Friday, according to
budget analysts.

Mandatory, across-the-board decreases in funding will spare the salaries of
uniformed Cyber Command members, but many of those personnel will be focused
on sequester planning rather than operations. Meanwhile, their civilian
peers face furloughs. Defense Department officials must reduce every
program’s budget by about 8 percent.

"That workload is going to detract from the actual mission work because you
know jobs are at stake. Incomes are at stake," said Todd Harrison, senior
fellow for defense budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments.

Certain contractors will be let go and civilians will be furloughed for one
day a week starting mid-April through the end of September, under the 2011
Budget Control Act that resolved a debt-ceiling crisis. The skeletal
programming could continue through 2014 because the $10 billion slashing
each year won’t sunset without new legislation.

Harrison said he would not rule out the possibility of long-term axe
wielding. "I would call it a worst case scenario," he said. The sequester
starting on Friday "was put in place as an unthinkable," but it is now
likely, he said. "Now, this 2014 unthinkable [scenario] -- we have to start
thinking about it."

Adversaries looking for weaknesses in U.S. networks are taking note of the
sky-is-falling discourse as Pentagon leaders prepare for the worst, some
defense experts say.

Jim Lewis, a researcher with the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, who advises Congress and the Obama administration, said in the fall
the notion officials are projecting that the military's guard is down could
be a greater threat to national security than the reality of the military’s
strength. The bigger risk is "to the foreign perception of U.S.
capabilities," he said. "They would decide we are more vulnerable and less
competent."

Harrison said, “The rhetoric that is being used, our allies and adversaries
are listening to that and we may be sending the wrong message.”

Lawmakers could quickly change the course of events -- without sacrificing
the fiscal constraints they voted for -- by passing a measure to grant
officials a degree of flexibility when making cuts, according to research.

"The big question is whether the agencies can make tradeoffs among programs
within each of the thousands of accounts that would be cut," said Ray
Bjorklund, chief knowledge officer at market research firm Deltek.

President Obama might have created a loophole to permit tradeoffs by
ignoring legislation related to the deficit deal, he said.

"The Sequestration Transparency Act of 2012 required the White House to
illustrate the effects of a sequester down to program, project and activity
level. The White House did not answer that data requirement under the act,"
Bjorklund noted. "I think the White House also resisted reporting at [that]
level to ensure they will have enough flexibility to do what makes sense for
national security."

He estimates that Defense cyber activities will be scaled back by about $600
million to $800 million total. The types of programs targeted, given some
flexibility, might include departmentwide training to heighten awareness of
the types of cyber assaults deserving of a U.S. military response.

Cyberwar rehearsals or security tests that employ simulations also could be
hampered. "Comprehensive fit-out of new CYBERCOM mission facilities," as
well as academic research into novel cyber defense and information
operations could be dented, Bjorklund said.

Other analysts are optimistic that Congress can cooperate on legislative
fixes to tighten America’s national and economic security, especially in
cyberspace.

Within the past two months, The New York Times, Apple, Microsoft and
security contractor Bit9 have admitted falling victim to breaches that
security researchers term "sophisticated" attacks -- a euphemism for nation
state-sponsored intrusions. The White House issued an executive order
requiring that agencies exchange with industry sensitive information about
threats, and asking that industry do the same. The administration also
released a strategy to counter cyber espionage, after computer forensic firm
Mandiant tied the Chinese military to more than 140 spying operations in
mostly English-speaking countries. And the Pentagon announced a planned
five-fold uptick in cyber forces at home and abroad.

"I don't expect the across-the-board approach will last very long if at
all," said Shawn P. McCarthy, an IDC Government Insights research director.
"Given the current state of events, cybersecurity would be the least logical
area to cut.”


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