[Infowarrior] - OT: Dem Senators resigning

[Richard Forno]

(off-topic but relevant I think. -rf)

Top Democrats head for the exits
By: Manu Raju and Josh Kraushaar
January 6, 2010 04:17 AM EST

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=01DFC7F5-18FE-70B2-A8F03C3E0E8C765A

The grim outlook for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections just got  
a little worse.

Four top Democrats—including veteran Sens. Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan— 
all prepared to pull the plug on their campaigns in a 24-hour period  
that began Tuesday, and in the process, offered an unnerving glimpse  
at the perilous election year ahead.

With Dorgan’s stunning retirement announcement Tuesday evening,  
Democrats are now facing their bleakest election outlook in years—and  
the very real possibility the party will lose its 60-40 Senate  
supermajority after the November elections. On the House side, the  
prospect of heavy 20-30 seat losses is already looking increasingly  
likely.

“It’s not good news for Democrats,” said Roy Temple, a Democratic  
strategist. “The reality is this is going to be challenging year, and  
this is an additional challenge you would prefer not to have. Because  
of the success of the last two cycles, there are a lot of seats to  
defend. This is just an additional complication.”

Dorgan’s announcement was accompanied Tuesday by Michigan Democratic  
Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s decision to end his floundering bid for  
governor, and by the revelation that both Dodd and Colorado Gov. Bill  
Ritter would announce Wednesday that they would not seek reelection.

There is some silver lining in the Democratic cloud: Ritter, Cherry  
and Dodd were all struggling to gain traction and their departures  
could actually increase Democratic chances of holding those offices.

Several top-tier prospects immediately surfaced in Colorado as  
potential Democratic candidates for governor. In Connecticut,  
Democrats expect that state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will  
run in Dodd’s place, providing them with a stronger nominee than the  
embattled five-term senator.

Yet the retirements of two senior Democratic senators, and the  
suddenly altered landscapes in Michigan and Colorado, continue a wave  
of Democratic bail outs that began with a burst of retirements by  
veteran House Democrats representing competitive districts, followed  
by the stunning late December party switch by freshman Alabama Rep.  
Parker Griffith.

In the meantime, President Obama’s and the Democratic Party’s poll  
ratings have slipped across the board, generic polling is now  
generally more favorable to Republicans and a handful of promising  
Democratic House candidates have abruptly ended their campaigns.

Suddenly, the sad sack GOP is looking at its best shot in three  
election cycles of making serious gains in November.

“Sen. Dorgan’s retirement coupled with the recent spate of retirements  
by House Democrats show the national mood is swinging against them,”  
said Carl Forti, a GOP strategist. “With [Sen. Blanche] Lincoln and  
others in a precarious position, Democrats will have to thread the  
needle to get back to 60 seats.”

In Dorgan’s case, Republicans now have a very strong chance at picking  
up his seat in Republican-oriented North Dakota, a state which Barack  
Obama lost by eight points in 2008 and John Kerry lost by 27 points in  
2004.

Dorgan said his decision had nothing to do with his re-election  
campaign, where he had yet to face stiff competition – though the  
popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven could have possibly jumped into the race  
and forced the senator to wage a fierce campaign. In the wake of  
Dorgan's announcement, North Dakota GOP Chair Gary Emineth told  
POLITICO that he believes Hoeven is likely to run now.

In a memo to staff and later to the press, Dorgan said that he came to  
his decision over the holiday season and wanted to pursue interests  
outside of politics, including writing two more books, working on  
energy policy and teaching.

“[M]y decision has no relationship to the prospect of a difficult  
election contest this year,” Dorgan said. “Frankly, I think if I had  
decided to run for another term in the Senate I would be reelected.”

Still, his decision forces Democrats to defend yet another open seat  
in addition to Delaware and Illinois—two states where Democrats  
typically run up the score but where the GOP is poised to run  
competitive candidates this year. And it comes in a year in which  
Democratic incumbents including Majority Leader Harry Reid, Sen. Arlen  
Specter, appointed Sen. Michael Bennet and Lincoln are battling weak  
polling numbers.

“Remember the old Tareyton cigarette slogan? ‘I'd rather fight than  
switch?’” said Alex Castellanos, who advises the Republican National  
Committee. “Now that the Democrats are expected to drop under 60, we  
will probably see other retirements as Democrats decide they would  
retire than fight.”

Despite the souring outlook, Democrats are hopeful about their chances  
in five of the six states where Senate Republicans have their own  
retirement-related problems– Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, Florida  
and Kentucky. They envision a scenario where the economy will yield  
job growth heading into the midterms, and expect that public  
perception of the party will brighten if Congress gives final approval  
to the Democrats’ sweeping health care bill and approves other  
measures on the ambitious agenda.

Some Democrats give little credence to the retirements, noting that  
they have no broader meaning other than the fact that individual  
lawmakers chose not to run for reelection.

“These guys quit sometimes,” said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist.

The timing—the first week of the new year—and the locales of the  
retirements makes them hard to dismiss as isolated incidents, however.

In Colorado, the epicenter of the recent Democratic resurgence in the  
interior west, it is telling that Ritter, a 53-year-old former Denver  
prosecutor who cruised to victory in 2006, would unexpectedly pull  
down the curtain on a promising career and that Bennet, the senator he  
appointed to a vacant Senate seat, would be in jeopardy of losing it.

In Michigan, a state battered by job losses but still a reliable  
Democratic bulwark in state and federal races in recent years, the  
heir apparent to two-term Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is  
similarly quitting before even starting, unable to raise money or get  
out from under the shadow of what has become a deeply unpopular  
administration.

And back in Washington, Democrats were all but blindsided by Dorgan’s  
decision to retire rather than seek a fourth term in a seat that only  
he may be able to hold. Neither the Senate majority leader nor the  
White House even had a statement prepared.

Compounding the problem for Democrats—and spreading the pain to all  
three Democratic campaign committees Tuesday—the one Democrat who may  
be able to hold Dorgan’s seat is Rep. Earl Pomeroy. But if he vacates  
North Dakota’s at-large seat, that would create another problem:  
Republicans would be positioned for another House pick-up.

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