[Infowarrior] - WHO set to declare first flu pandemic since 1968

[Richard Forno]

WHO set to declare first flu pandemic since 1968
Thu Jun 11, 2009 9:39am EDT

By Stephanie Nebehay

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE55A1U720090611?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&sp=true

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization was poised on  
Thursday to declare that the new H1N1 virus has caused the first  
influenza pandemic in more than 40 years, health sources said on  
Thursday.

The move will trigger heightened health measures in the WHO's 193  
member states as authorities brace for the worldwide spread of the  
virus that has so far caused mainly mild illness.

WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan was to hold a news conference on  
the outbreak at 1600 GMT.

Flu experts advising Chan, who met earlier on Thursday, were expected  
to recommend moving to the top phase 6 on the WHO's six-point scale,  
the sources said.

That would reflect the fact that the disease, widely known as swine  
flu, was spreading geographically, but not necessarily indicate how  
virulent it is.

"Phase 6, if we call a phase 6, doesn't mean anything concerning  
severity, it is concerning geographic spread ... Pandemic means  
global, but it doesn't have any connotation of severity or mildness,"  
WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

"In fact, what we are seeing with this virus so far is overwhelmingly  
to date mild disease. So we would think that this event is really a  
moderate event for the time being, because the numbers are high but  
the disease is overwhelmingly mild," he told Reuters Television before  
the talks.

David Heymann, a former top WHO official now chairing Britain's Health  
Protection Agency, said that countries had tried to contain the virus  
through measures including school closures during the current phase 5.  
This has extended the precious time needed to prepare for a full-blown  
pandemic.

"During phase 5, the government and people in the U.K. have had the  
time to prepare for a pandemic -- this has hopefully decreased any  
surprise and concern that might be associated with a WHO announcement  
of phase 6, if one is made," he told Reuters.

As it spreads in humans, science cannot predict what course the virus  
will take, the disease it causes and the age groups infected, Heymann  
said. "The severity of that disease, the effectiveness of antiviral  
drugs and the stability of the virus must all be watched closely," he  
added.

A pandemic could cause enormous disruption to business as workers stay  
home because they are sick or to look after family members and  
authorities restrict gatherings of large numbers of people or movement  
of people or goods.

World markets shrugged off the possibility of a pandemic, as investors  
focused on possible global economic recovery.

AUSTRALIA LIKELY TRIGGER

Widespread transmission of the virus in Victoria, Australia, signaling  
that it is entrenched in another region besides North America, is  
likely to be the trigger for moving to phase 6.

Five people have been admitted to intensive care in Australia and more  
than 1,000 cases confirmed following widespread testing in the state.

"We have tested 5,500 people in the last two weeks, that is more  
people than we test in our whole influenza season," said Victorian  
state premier John Brumby.

One health source, who declined to be named, said the experts were  
also expected to recommend finishing production currently under way of  
seasonal flu vaccine for the northern hemisphere next winter.

"They might say finish seasonal vaccine and say begin pandemic vaccine  
as soon as it is feasible," he said.

Drugmakers have obtained the new influenza A (H1N1) seed virus in the  
past two weeks, enabling them to begin the production process by  
growing the virus in eggs.

Company officials said on Wednesday that they were on track to have a  
vaccine against the new strain ready for the northern hemisphere autumn.

Seasonal flu each year kills up to half a million people, mainly  
elderly, and causes severe illness in millions, so a premature switch  
in vaccine production to cope with the new strain could put many  
people at risk.

The new strain can be treated by antiviral drugs oseltamivir, the  
generic name of Roche Holding's Tamiflu tablets, and Relenza, a spray  
made by GlaxoSmithKline.

The strain, which emerged in April in Mexico and the United States,  
has spread widely in nations including Australia, Britain, Chile and  
Japan.

Authorities in Germany have confirmed 30 cases of H1N1 at a school in  
the industrial Rhineland city of Duesseldorf, the most concentrated  
outbreak of the virus so far in Europe's biggest economy.

There have been 27,737 infections reported in 74 countries to date,  
including 141 deaths, according to the WHO's latest tally of  
laboratory confirmed cases, but the real number of people with the  
disease is likely to run into at least hundreds of thousands, as mild  
cases may not have been detected.

A survey by New York City's health department showed that 6.9 percent  
of the city's population of over 8 million had experienced "flu-like  
illness" -- which could include other diseases -- in the first three  
weeks of May.

"The findings don't tell us exactly how many New Yorkers have had H1N1  
influenza," said New York City Health Commissioner Dr Thomas Farley in  
a statement. "But they suggest it has been widespread, and mild in  
most affected people."