[Infowarrior] - Aging weather satellite fleet at risk

[Richard Forno]

Posted on Sun, Jan. 28, 2007
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/16563706.htm

Aging weather satellite fleet at risk
According to a new study, crucial weather and environmental satellites soon
will fail, and their replacements are insufficient and behind schedule.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer at MiamiHerald.com

    * Document | Prepublication version of The National Academy of Science's
report on the nation's Earth monitoring

Scientists soon will lose access to crucial information that helps them
better understand and predict everything from hurricanes and earthquakes to
global warming and environmental decay, according to a candid and sobering
report by prestigious experts.

As wide gaps develop in the ability of scientists to analyze natural
phenomena, Floridians -- particularly vulnerable to hurricanes, rising sea
levels and environmental changes affecting fisheries and farmers -- could be
especially affected.

''It's a train wreck,'' said Otis Brown, dean of the University of Miami's
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and a member of the
National Academy of Science's panel that issued the report earlier this
month.

''When you hope for the best, this is about the worst you could imagine in
terms of things going awry,'' he said.

Among the reasons for this reversal of scientific fortunes: sharp budget
cuts, ill-advised technological compromises, and a botched partnership
between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to the report.

And the setbacks come at an inopportune time.

NOAA recently reported that last year was the warmest on record in the
United States, and a major study scheduled for release Friday by an
international group of scientists is expected to amplify the developing
crisis of global warming.

Scientist Stephen Hawking and several colleagues recently said climate
change posed a threat nearly equal to that of nuclear proliferation.

To date, no one has challenged the panel's conclusions, which were released
Jan. 15. NOAA and NASA said they were studying the 436-page report. A
congressional committee vowed to apply ''vigorous oversight'' to the
situation.

Among the highlights -- or possibly lowlights -- of the report by scores of
experts working with the academy, which is chartered by Congress and advises
the federal government on scientific matters:

€ By 2010, the number of operating sensors and instruments on NASA's aging
fleet of weather and other global-monitoring satellites will decrease 40
percent, and replacement sensors are behind schedule, over budget and, in
many cases, less capable.

'The United States' extraordinary foundation of global observations is at
great risk,'' the committee concluded.

Said Brown: ``We're seeing a reduction in the development of new approaches
and, in fact, we well could be worse off than we are now.''

€ In particular, there is ''substantial concern'' about the pending loss of
an important satellite-based instrument employed by tropical weather
forecasters and hurricane researchers.

The QuikSCAT information helps scientists estimate wind speeds at the
ocean's surface. That information contributes to year-round forecasts of
marine conditions, and it's crucially important to hurricane specialists,
helping them assess the strength of storms that are far from land and often
enabling the identification of new tropical systems.

OUTDATED DEVICE

But the device is well past its designed lifetime, which was expected to end
by 2002, and budget concerns and technical compromises prompted NOAA to
replace it with a less sophisticated instrument that still hasn't been
launched, the committee said.

This could diminish the accuracy of hurricane and other forecasts,
especially for coastal areas such as South Florida.

''The committee believes it's imperative that a measurement capability be
available to prevent a data gap,'' the report concluded.

Chris Landsea, the National Hurricane Center's science and operations
officer, called QuikSCAT a ''wonderful tool'' that has ``become ingrained in
our operations, and it could disappear tomorrow.''

''What's available in the plans would be a degradation to that,'' Landsea
said.

€ Much of NASA's budget and many of its scientists are being diverted to the
human space program that was reenergized by President Bush's proposal to
send astronauts back to the moon and onward to Mars.

The president's 2007 budget reduced NASA's research and analysis budget for
science missions 15 percent compared to 2005. Since 2000, the agency's
earth-science budget has been slashed 30 percent. That caused the
elimination of some projects, including measurements of solar radiation and
Earth radiation that could help scientists understand global warming.

€ In addition, many of NASA's scientists seem too interested in theoretical
research and insufficiently focused on practical science that can address
pressing environmental issues, the committee said.

In particular, the panel urged NASA scientists to transition from brief
examinations of the climate to sustained studies that might help answer
pressing questions about drought, soil moisture and other issues.

And, the panel said, coordination between NOAA and NASA is weak.

''The committee is particularly concerned with the lack of clear agency
responsibility for sustained research programs and the transitioning of
proof-of-concept measurements into sustained measurement systems,'' the
report said.

OTHER PROBLEMS

At the same time, NOAA is coping with many other problems. Automated buoys,
weather balloons, radars and other equipment fail at unacceptably high
rates, The Miami Herald's ''Blind Eye'' series reported in 2005, and budget
overruns are legion.

In response to the new report, both agencies issued noncommittal responses.

''It's useful to have such consolidated and prioritized information from the
users of our data,'' NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher said in a
written statement. ``Once we have a more complete understanding of this
complex study, we will be working closely with NASA to assess how our two
agencies can best address recommendations.''

NASA said it appreciated the group's work and already devotes considerable
resources to earth sciences. ''The decadal survey offers important guidance
on how best to spend that money,'' the agency said in a prepared statement.

On Capitol Hill, Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., chairman of the House Committee
on Science and Technology, praised the committee's work as ``a great service
in providing clear recommendations for a constructive way forward.''

`A CLOSE EYE'

He said the committee would keep a close eye on NOAA and NASA, especially
when it came to ``continued climate observations.''

In some ways, the report represented a scientific version of the Iraq Study
Group, which last month issued a comprehensive report about the war.

Both panels stepped back, closely analyzed a government program and issued
recommendations to set right what once went wrong.

Brown, the University of Miami scientist who participated in the academy's
study, suggested that the group's conclusions should worry all Americans.

''The simple message is that we've spent decades and what amounts to
billions [of dollars] in developing state-of-the-art environmental sensing
systems from space, and what we're seeing is that these systems are at
risk,'' he said.

The panel urged federal officials to fully fund currently planned satellites
and design and launch 17 new missions, but it is already too late to avoid
gaps in the U.S. network, he said.

''We might be able to use a foreign satellite capability,'' Brown said.
``But in the U.S. pipeline, there is no way to fix it quickly. There's a lag
time that's measured in years. These are long-term decisions that are
made.''

And now, the consequences are becoming clear.

''To get a report like this through the national academy that even begins to
hint at how screwed up things are is pretty amazing,'' Brown said. ``You can
tell that feelings are very strong about this.''